Looking Ahead to 2016

N ext week is CES, and I am so looking
forward to coming home from that show.
It used to be a lot of fun, but it covers
such a massive amount of space that just
getting around takes up much of the time.
Given that most folks do prebriefings if
they are smart, and that most of the really
cool stuff is behind closed doors and not
on the show floor, every year I question
the intelligence of going. However, this
year it does herald what should be a
rather amazing year.
I'll close with my product of the year. I
thought long and hard about this one, as
there were a lot of good contenders:
Tesla's SUV, Microsoft's Surface,
Hootsuite, Dell XPS 13, Lenovo Carbon,
and the Linksys Mu-MIMO router, to
name a few. It came down to which
product set the best example, and my
choice may surprise you.
The Year of Artificial Intelligence
2016 is looking like the year when we
really see the impact of AI. That isn't just
because Elon Musk launched a startup
with that in mind -- it is also because so
much of what we'll be seeing around us
has some advanced form of intelligence in
it.
Examples include drones that
automatically navigate around obstacles,
the first viable self-driving car prototypes,
IBM Watson solutions average people can
use, and robotic vacuum cleaners that
seem to think about the room and
bounce around walls far less often.
By the end of 2016, I expect we'll see a
number of companies that are raised up
because of their unique use of AI, and a
bunch that either fail or are on the ropes
because they didn't see either the risk or
opportunity until it was too late. I also
expect that 2016 may be the first year
when a major election is won or lost by
the use of some intelligent system -- just
like the last ones were the result of better
management of social media.
MU-MIMO Arrives
Your WiFi becomes obsolete in 2016 as
phones that support MU-MIMO start
showing up -- and I expect laptops and
tablets also will start arriving with this
feature. This means a huge jump in
bandwidth, particularly for those
attending conferences.
The folks who have phones, tablets and
PCs that don't support it will be waiting
even longer for their mail to download
and their Web pages to load. This is good
news if this is the year you typically
replace your phone. If it isn't, you are
likely to wish it was.
It is going to be interesting to see which
phone vendors do and don't get how
important the radio is to a smartphone
buyer. It may even be time for you to
consider that the aging tablet you thought
would last you forever might need to be
replaced.
The Internet of Things
Yep, you likely won't be able to hide next
year, as you suddenly realize everything
you are seeing in the stores at the high
end is fully connected. I'm not sure how
much of this stuff really will make sense --
but, in the end, you'll see an Internet-
connected option for everything from
your smoke detectors and thermostats to
your ovens and refrigerators.
Sadly, I doubt most of these will be MU-
MIMO, which suggests you'll likely have to
think about replacing them again within
five years. Anticipate a recommendation
to hold off until the technology in these
devices matches the new technology that
is rolling out to market.
Self-Driving Light
You'll see the first big step to self-driving
with enhanced cruise control systems that
generally will keep you on the road most
of the time while you're on a freeway.
Other than Tesla's system, most of these
will be obsolete within 18 months. That
suggests you might want to save your
pennies and avoid this option or avoid
buying a new car until this technology is
fully cooked in a couple of years.
I'm expecting most of the cars sold in this
pre self-driving window to depreciate like
they fell off a cliff, with the exception of
Tesla models, because they're designed to
accept upgrades.
I expect we'll see some interesting
accidents as people ask limited self-driving
systems to do things they weren't
designed to do, proving yet again that
some of us are idiots.
Goodbye Yahoo
Unless something dramatic happens, I
think we are going to say goodbye to
Yahoo in 2016. Its plan to raise money by
selling off its stake in Alibaba fell through
this year, and its large investors are now
in an open battle with very different plans
for Yahoo's future.
None of these folks appear to have the
critical mass needed to drive forward any
of the plans focused on raising cash or
massively cutting costs, however. The end
result is likely to be the confused death of
a company. I hope I'm wrong here, but it
looks like the sharks are circling the body
-- and that doesn't bode well for Yahoo's
future.
The Dell/EMC Merger
Dell/EMC is arguably the biggest
technology merger in history, and it is in
sharp contrast to HP's breakup.
In 2016, we'll get to see if Dell can pull
off another miracle and create the biggest
privately owned technology company in
history.
If it pulls this off, it will have the most
advanced customer loyalty program and
technology forecasting programs under
one roof and no drag from public
investors, either in cost or decision
making.
It should be kind of like what would
happen if an F1 Car raced a NASCAR car .
(Hint: The F1 car is much faster.)
Electric Cars Live or Die
Until this year, only Tesla seemed to get
that the real electric car market was in
the luxury segment. The problem, though,
is that with gas dropping toward US$2 a
gallon, the justification for an electric car
has become far more difficult to argue.
If the Republicans win the presidential
campaign -- long odds at this point, I
know -- they are likely to kill electric
subsidies, and the continued high cost of
batteries coupled with the low cost of gas
could kill off much of the segment.
If electric cars can survive 2016 on more
than life support, then they are likely to
make it until 2020, when they should be
able displace gas cars broadly. If not...
Microsoft's Hardware Wars
This year Microsoft threw down the
gauntlet with its excellent Surface 4 tablet,
and really rubbed folks' faces in its
Surface Book -- a stunning halo product.
That hardly went unnoticed. In 2016, Dell,
HP and Lenovo (among others) will bring
to market their response and a fight over
whether Microsoft or its OEM partners
can build a better 2-in-1 PC.
This is a no-holds-barred fight, and the
OEMs are pissed, which means we are
likely to see some rather amazing
products, including the Surface Pro 5 and
Surface Book 2. The only certain winner is
us, because we'll get amazing choices we
likely wouldn't have seen otherwise.
The Dyson Robot Vacuum Killer
Or maybe I mean the killer Dyson robotic
vacuum . This product has been a long
time in coming, and, on paper, it looks to
be able to eat everything else in the
market -- including the new and smarter
Roomba.
I doubt Roomba or Neato will be sitting
this one out, so expect a robotic vacuum
battle royal for your home -- and let's just
hope none of them show up armed.
Wrapping Up: 2016 Should Be
Amazing
We have a lot to look forward to in 2016:
smarter cars, smarter tech companies,
smarter wireless, and smarter appliances
-- which we may want to purchase wisely,
because much of what will be in the
market will be in massive transition,
making decisions risky.
Those risks may get worse through the
end of the decade -- likely making a lot of
Luddites look really smart.
That said, we'll see some amazingly
tempting things. From your PCs, tablets
and smartphones to your smartwatches
and smarter cars, you may find that by
the end of the year, much of what you
own is smarter than you are. Now isn't
that aggravating?